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PM Modi’s 50-Day deadline for re-monetisation set to fail: Here’s why

Source : 1   On   14 Dec 2016
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PM Modi’s 50-Day deadline for re-monetisation set to fail: Here’s why

We are 17 days from Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 50-day due date to end the most exceedingly bad impacts of the rejecting of 86%–by value–of India's money. In the mid-section pounding, hand-wringing and debate that has resulted since the declaration on November 8, 2016, there has been a nonappearance of certainties on the topic of re-monetising India.

An extrapolation of 2016 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) information on the limit of Indian printing presses and coin appropriation demonstrates that, at current rates, the Prime Minister's due date won't be met. Getting satisfactory cash to banks and ATMs across the nation will rely on upon what number of monetary certificates the administration needs to return to flow.

On the off chance that the administration needs to present Rs 9 lakh crore ($135 billion)–or 35% less cash than it pulled out–it will take up to May 2017, and in the event that it needs to reintroduce the whole Rs 14 lakh crore ($210 billion) that it pulled back, that could take up to August 2017.

The essence of the issue is change, particularly the Rs 500 note, which India's presses can't, as of now, print in satisfactory number.

Here are the actualities:

•The RBI has four presses at: Dewas (Madhya Pradesh), Nashik (Maharashtra), Salboni (West Bengal), and Mysuru (Karnataka).

•The printing limit of these presses is around 2,670 crore (26.7 billion) takes note of a year, as indicated by the RBI's 2016 yearly report (page 90). Then again approximately 7.4 crore (74 million) takes note of a day.

•If the presses worked three moves a day rather than two, their day by day generation limit could be raised to 11.1 crore (111 million) takes note of a day.

•However, not as much as half of the machines in the presses can print the security highlights required for high-esteem notes (Rs 500 or more).

•This implies that regardless of the possibility that every one of the machines that print high-esteem notes in each of the four presses printed just Rs 500 rupee notes 24 hours a day, we would, best case scenario have the capacity to print 5.56 crore (55.6 million) Rs 500 notes each day.

•This means about Rs. 2,778 crore ($418 million) in esteem printed each day in Rs 500 notes.

Prior to the declaration of demonetisation, the administration had officially organized the printing of 200 crore (2 billion) Rs 2,000 notes, or generally about Rs 4 lakh crore ($60 billion) in esteem. In this way, these were the principal set of notes to be coursed. This is the reason there are such a large number of pink notes available for use.

We should investigate an ideal opportunity to dispense in the two situations we specified:

Scenario 1: Rs 9 lakh crore (or about 66% the aggregate Rs 14 lakh crore that was demonetised) should be come back to the framework.

Scenario 2: Rs 14 lakh crore (full sum) should be recycled

For this add up to be fluid, a key condition should be met: Rs 2,000 notes can, at most, record for a large portion of the aggregate sum to be coursed. The rationale: If we don't have enough change, then the Rs 2,000 note will dependably be difficult to "break" into littler categories, which is the circumstance across the country today.

The other half should be accessible in lower-section notes. The aggregate estimation of Rs 100, Rs 50, Rs 20, and Rs 10 notes is Rs 2.19 lakh crore ($33 billion), as indicated by the RBI's yearly report.

In the event that we place this in a math condition where t is the aggregate estimation of Rs 2,000 notes and f is the aggregate estimation of Rs 500 notes, we wind up with this condition:

add up to estimation of 2,000s (t) = add up to estimation of 500s (f) + add up to estimation of 100s and underneath

then again

t = f + Rs 2.19 lakh crore

This implies the prerequisite of Rs 500 notes is as per the following:

In Scenario 1 (Rs 9 lakh crore disbursal):

t+f = Rs 9 lakh crore Solving for f, the estimation of Rs 500 notes required is 681 crore (6.81 billion) notes X Rs 500 = Rs 3.405 lakh crore

Situation 2 (Rs 14 lakh crore disbursal):

t+f = Rs 14 lakh crore Solving for f, the estimation of Rs 500 notes required is 1,181 crore (11.81 billion) notes X Rs 500 = Rs 5.905 lakh crore

As on November 30, 2016, under 10 crore (100 million) Rs 500 notes were printed and prepared (or two days worth of printing), as per a RBI source, cited in Mint.

We touch base at the essence of the issue: India needs to print no less than 681 crore (6.81 billion) Rs 500 notes. In Scenario 2, the Rs 500 prerequisite is for 1,181 crore (11.81 billion) notes. In any case, the pinnacle printing limit of the presses is 5.56 crore (55.6 million) noticed a day–or 0.8% of what it ought to be.

Because of current circumstances, we will take anyplace between 122 days and 212 days to print enough Rs 500 notes. Given the way that the RBI began printing Rs 500 notes vigorously after November 30, 2016, printing all the required 500s will be finished just on March 10, 2017 (Scenario 1), or July 8, 2017 (Scenario 2).

Considering the time taken for money transportation and the speed at which banks can push out the cash, counts show that total disbursal of Rs 9 lakh crore can happen toward the beginning of April 2017.

At the end of the day: India anticipates some "April showers" however a full "storm" should hold up until July.